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Chapter 3: I predicted your prediction about me.
No one wanted to die in vain.
An Wujiu’s goal at this moment was the same as that of everyone present, to become a survivor of the game. In this warm-up match, he needed to do two things.
1. Mustn’t win.
2. Quietly prompting Yang Ming to win.
Losing was actually very simple. Choosing 1 or 100 would definitely result in loss, but it was too eye-catching and looked like giving up. The difficulty of this game was that the loss should not be obvious, making Yang Ming and others believe that he was not actually “as strong” as was being said. In this way, other people’s fears and defenses against him could be alleviated.
The thin rainwater fell on the round table, wrapped in the smell of chemical raw materials and soil, which was terrifyingly real.
Time was running out.
The original purpose of playing this game with forward-thinking was to predict the results of others through analysis so that the number chosen by oneself was closer to the mean of the numbers chosen by everyone.
What about the other way around?
He wanted Yang Ming to be the person closest to half of the mean, so he needed to predict the number Yang Ming and others would choose and finally decide which number he wanted to write.
To achieve the desired result, An Wujiu needed to guess the range of each candidate’s number as accurately as possible.
The options were between 1 and 100. Assuming that there were enough rational participants in this game, so many that personal thinking could be ignored, then the guessed numbers would be evenly distributed between 1 and 100, and the average value would be around 50. After taking half, the selectable number would be further reduced, from [1,100] to [1,50]. By choosing more than 50, it was impossible to become half of the mean. According to the probability or median, the number that people generally guess would be half of the mean of 50, which was 25.
Choose a number above 25 and chances of winning would be greatly reduced.
Choosing a number that was too large would cause a psychological burden and the fear of losing the average. Under this mentality, choosing a smaller number was the safest bet.
But this was only the first layer of logic.
If everyone realized this and followed this layer of logic, the selected numbers would generally fall below 25. In this way, half of the final average value would be shifted downward to become about 12.5. By analogy, the next level was 6.25…
Players in the first level would guess half of the mean value in their minds.
The player in the second level would guess half of what he thought was the mean value of others.
Such that others believed what they thought was half of what other people thought…
As the player’s logical level deepened, the final number guessed would become smaller and smaller until it reached number 1, because no player would think that other people would choose a number smaller than themselves. This equilibrium state was the Nash equilibrium.
So the most difficult part of this game was not to guess the mean but to guess which level the current eight contestants were at.
Therefore, after learning the rules of the game, An Wujiu devoted all his energy to observation, which was the only way he could obtain intelligence on strangers in a short time. A person’s thinking mode was largely formed by his day-to-day life experience and education, and the thinking mode would in turn affect his dressing and dealing with others.
Liu Chengwei had never been to school, hadn’t received a basic education, and had a high probability of not knowing game theory.
An Wujiu glanced at Liu Chengwei and found that he didn’t write the answer decisively but scratched his head and cheeks and thought hard for a while.
But when one had this kind of problem, one could always think of the number close to the middle. For Liu Chengwei’s level, the probability of choosing an average value of 50 was the greatest.
When he looked at the others, An Wujiu suddenly realized that when he woke up, the panel displayed the fifth round. He didn’t know if other players were the same, but at least one thing was possible — no one was a novice. Because no one was overly flustered or unfamiliar with the rules, and no one broke down when they saw offenders being shot.
These survivors had experienced the previous rounds and survived, and this round was not a novice round. According to the difficulty of this warm-up game, there might have been similar projects before.
None of the survivors alive today were fools.
Wu You, the youngest among them… An Wujiu felt very strange that such a young child could enter into such a life-and-death game. Just looking at his clothes, he didn’t seem like someone who could afford the cost of education, but when he mentioned the pattern on An Wujiu’s neck, Wu You immediately mentioned the type of flower, which at least showed that his family was not ordinary.
He must have expected the mean value to be 25, but if he really chose 25, he might also worry that someone would choose a smaller number and lower the mean value.
His answer was probably closer to 12.5.
Ueno and Lao Yu seem to belong to the same category of people; they were cautious, afraid of fouls, and thought too much. Ueno wore glasses, and there were thin calluses on the fingertips, which was probably the trace of long-term use of the keyboard, so he should have received education, or even higher education. They should stand at a higher level of logic than Liu Chengwei and Wu You, so it should be about 6.25, and they could only choose natural numbers, which was 6.
An Wujiu fell into deep thought. It was not easy to think of around 6, and there would be risks if one continued to go down because everyone’s thinking depth was different. Even if one could think of deeper logic, one would worry that others would not think of it, so one might give up on choosing a smaller number.
What about Zhong Yirou?
She was very smart. This was An Wujiu’s impression of her. She was good at interpersonal relationships and good at observation. Before others understood the key to this game, she had already guessed Yang Ming’s occupation. This kind of intelligence-gathering ability was definitely not ordinary.
In addition, the distribution of her finger calluses didn’t seem to be left by using a computer, and the small scars were more like using a fine knife.
An Wujiu looked at the tool bag on her body, the artificial leather on her calf, and her modified palm.
It should be related to prosthetic body modification or precision machinery.
But it was precisely because she was smart enough that her analysis of the first few people should be the same as his own. For her, she needed to be on guard against both Yang Ming and himself.
According to the information about An Wujiu given by Yang Ming, the useful information was nothing more than scheming, insidiousness, and cunning. Such an image would lead Zhong Yirou to believe that “An Wujiu will make very unexpected choices, such as choosing a very low number”.
For her, the final result might be around 6. Once someone chose a small number that was balanced with the previous one by Liu Chengwei and others, it might be exactly where she was in the end.
Everyone could only guess at the moment. An Wujiu was very clear that it was all guesswork, and the final result might not be one of them.
But despite this, guessing could be divided into easy guessing and difficult guessing. The most difficult one for him was Shen Ti.
This person was currently the only one on the field who had no flaws.
With a mask on his face, An Wujiu couldn’t see his face, and there was nothing unique about his clothes. He hadn’t even made a statement so far. An Wujiu couldn’t help raising his head while thinking and looked in the opposite direction. But he found that the other party was also looking at him.
The two looked at each other again, and An Wujiu squinted his eyes.
The other party was also watching him.
For everyone on the field, An Wujiu, who was described as a lunatic, was undoubtedly a dangerous time bomb, and Shen Ti was probably also very curious.
In the eyes of two people, each other was the biggest uncertainty factor and fault tolerance point. It was just that one person had no flaws, and the other person was completely exposed.
Wrong. An Wujiu looked down at the paper.
No flaw was the biggest flaw.
Shen Ti chose not to expose at all, which showed that he understood the fundamentals of this game. Then the choices of the previous few people were also predictable to him. There were at least two people who would choose a number higher than 6, so if Shen Ti wanted to win, he would not choose a number that was too low.
But An Wujiu could only bet on a specific number between 6 and 12.5.
Currently, there was a number that might appear around 25, a number that might appear around 12.5, and three numbers that might appear around 6. Not counting Shen Ti, Yang Ming, and himself, the average number was about 11. Then half of the average will appear on 5 or 6.
Logically speaking, if the remaining three people were good at deep thinking, the number they would choose should be low, even reaching the third level. But precisely because of this, they understand the rules of how the game works, and what they would really do was not to guess deeper but to approach other people’s answers.
Shen Ti’s full armor made An Wujiu feel something, and his intuition made him believe that the opponent would choose a lower number.
Since he could feel it, Yang Ming must also be able to.
The final number would not be higher than 6.
What would Yang Ming choose?
No, how would Yang Ming speculate about himself?
An Wujiu looked at Yang Ming, who was staring at the display screen without raising his head, frowning as if lost in thought.
“The calculation time is up. Now announcing the results of the first round of ‘The Golden Mean’ game.”
The handwriting screens in front of each of them projected new projections in the air one by one.
“Wu You: 13, Lao Yu: 6, Zhong Yirou: 6, Ueno Taisei: 7, Liu Chengwei: 25. Yang Ming: 5, Shen Ti: 6, An Wujiu: 8.”
“Half of the final mean is 4.75, the closest result is Yang Ming’s result. Yang Ming won.”
Seeing the expected complacency and rare relaxation on Yang Ming’s face, An Wujiu’s heart sank.
His prediction was not wrong.
Yang Ming’s level was the same as he imagined. He could estimate the range of the average on the field, but for him, estimation was useless because there was a person he was afraid of.
After the previous conversation, An Wujiu already knew how dangerous he was in Yang Ming’s mind. He was very scheming and good at disguising. He didn’t play cards according to common sense and looked down on anyone else.
So playing slowly and steadily wasn’t in line with his expectations.
The persona of “Angelic face but devious heart” was given to him by Yang Mingan, so An Wujiu had no choice but to use it.
He calculated Yang Ming’s scheme against him and finally wrote a result on paper that should meet the other party’s expectations. 8. A number that seemed to be underestimating the level of others.
Although this couldn’t be regarded as an aboveboard strategy, An Wujiu had no other choice; he just wanted to protect himself.
The final result was not bad, as expected, but there was a slight surprise that Shen Ti had just chosen a 6. He would not fail to guess that the result could not be evenly distributed.
So it was likely on purpose.
“As expected of Yang-ge1哥 (ge) for elder brother.” Zhong Yirou changed her words and brushed the hair hanging from her shoulders, smiling sweetly, “Truly amazing.”
“Luck, it was all luck.” Yang Ming couldn’t hide the smile on his face. The establishment of self-confidence was often so easy; all it took was for a powerful opponent who once evaded to lose to oneself in full view.
“Tsk, I thought some people were so powerful.” Liu Chengwei sneered, “It’s no different from people like us. In the end, they even lost the warm-up game.”
These words were what An Wujiu expected. When Liu Chengwei said it, he even felt a little gratified that his goal had been achieved.
Dramatically, the one who spoke for An Wujiu turned out to be Yang Ming, who regarded him as a thorn in his side.
“It was just an occasional mishap.” He raised his eyebrows and said, “After all, I didn’t work for nothing all these years.”
An Wujiu sat quietly, staring at his slightly trembling fingers.
As a result of winning, a gift box popped up in front of Yang Ming and landed in his hand with a blue light.
“Congratulations. Initializing the game for everyone before announcing the advantages you have gained in this round.”
As soon as the words fell, everyone on the round table floated up. With dizziness, like the illusion caused by excessive intake of hallucinogens, the world wrapped in light pollution and air dust began to rotate and collapse and finally turned into a small point, a white particle.
Then, like an explosion, the particles expand into a whole new world at an uncapturable speed.
The divine voice began to introduce the world view of the new round of the game: “This round of the game is called “the red and black carnage”. Terrorists launched a poison gas attack in Miami. The density of this poison gas is lower than that of the air, and the casualties above the surface are heavy. At the time of life and death, the eight of you came to the safe bunker under the office building by accident through the air defense passage.”
“This is a miniature nuclear bunker secretly excavated and developed by the founder of Camiki Corporation. It is 18 meters deep underground. It is safe but closed, and the exit has been destroyed and can only be blasted from the outside. The survival resources here are very limited, only enough for the eight of you to last for four nights and five days.”
The dust-like particles gradually gathered into fragments, and the fragments approached and spliced together.
“In the bunker, a yellow energy bar will be displayed above each of your heads. It is full at initialization, but with problems such as hunger and thirst caused by the lack of supplies, the energy value will continue to decrease. Zero will be regarded as dead and out.”
“The current system time is 9:00 am, and at 9:00 am on the fifth day, there will be a rescue team to rescue everyone; of course, everyone who is alive.”
As long as you reached 9:00, that meant successful survival.
“Will the rescue team dig for five days with just a few people?” It was Zhong Yirou’s voice, “Is it rescue or archaeology?”
The view in front of him was too dazzling, and An Wujiu’s damaged vision made it difficult for him to adapt. It took nearly ten seconds for his field of vision to become clear.
He heard Ueno’s voice.
“Coming to rescue us on the fifth day. Are the supplies enough…”
After a while, the world that had been modeled finally appeared before their eyes.
An Wujiu stared at the closed door in front of him and the “Passion of Jesus” ① painted on it.
It could never be that simple.
The author has something to say:
① The painting by the painter Raphael, depicting the scene of Jesus being crucified on the cross.
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For every Ko-fi received for a perticular novel, I will release a new chapter!
i hate math so much lol